PRD — Teach the specialist when to defer to cloud

Goal

Train a specialist to emit {"defer_to_cloud": true, "reason": "..."} when it shouldn’t answer itself — too uncertain, off-domain, or explicitly destructive — instead of fabricating. Today’s tinygpt agent --cloud-escalate is a runtime policy: a regex over the response that triggers cloud retry. B5 makes escalation a trained behavior: the model learns to emit the signal.

Why now

• The cloud-escalate runtime path already ships (AgentLoop.swift). It works but is brittle (the regex misfires; the model doesn’t know when it’s wrong). Trained escalation is the next-quality step.
• B22 ships the trajectory recorder — the substrate for the labeled rollouts this PRD needs (each rollout knows whether the cloud fallback fixed it, which becomes the train-time label).
• For Pace specifically: trained escalation lets the local-first story stay honest. The local specialist gets harder tasks pushed to cloud cleanly, not via a string-match hack.

Scope — in

• Data generation: take a rollout dataset (.atraj files from B22), label each turn:
  • “answered correctly locally” → negative example (don’t escalate)
  • “answered wrong locally; cloud retry fixed it” → positive example (would have been right to escalate)
  • “answered correctly locally; cloud agreed” → ambiguous; drop
• Training: SFT on the labeled set with a new output channel. Schema gains a defer_to_cloud: bool + reason: string field on the existing planner response shape.
• Eval: tinygpt eval-escalate — measures (a) escalation precision (when the model says defer, was it actually wrong locally?), (b) recall (of the cases where local was wrong, what fraction did the model flag?), (c) over-escalation rate (defer when local was right).
• Runtime: tinygpt agent honors the trained signal as the primary trigger; the regex stays as a fallback for safety.

Scope — out

• Learning the cost-benefit of escalating (cloud is more accurate but slower + costs money). V1 is binary classifier; cost-aware is V2.
• Multi-tier escalation (local → bigger-local → cloud). V1 is two-tier.
• Self-judging without a cloud reference. This PRD assumes a cloud teacher for labeling. Self-improvement is a different arc.

Files to touch

Acceptance criteria

• Labeling pass on 1K rollouts produces a balanced (positive + negative) dataset.
• Trained specialist + escalation head reduces over-escalation (false defer) to < 10% on a held-out 200-rollout eval, while catching ≥ 70% of true defer cases.
• Runtime: tinygpt agent --cloud-escalate honors the trained signal first, regex second. Token-level test confirms.

Reference patterns

• Sources/TinyGPTServe/CloudEscalate.swift — the existing runtime path.
• factory-pace-planner-v6_1.md — the response-schema pattern; add the new field there.
• B22 trajectory format — input substrate.

Open questions

• Whether to add the reason field as a generation target or just a control flag. Recommendation: generate it; helps debug
  • provides interpretability.